Comments on sandip sabharwal: MID MONTH MARKET REVIEW

Hi Sandip Very interesting post. While quite a f...

2011-08-21T14:00:20.695+05:30

Hi Sandip
Very interesting post. While quite a few people are suggesting that there is too much uncertainty, I'm seeing the downgrade of US debt and the ensuing selling the markets as a potential buying opportunity.
I find your statement about the next upwards run very encouraging. Any particular sectors / stocks that you see that one should watch out as participants in the next upmove? any particular sectors or stocks to avoid?
Any direction there would be much appreciated.
thanks
Vaibhav

Jigs, Contrary to expectations we will see the US...

2011-08-19T10:21:56.653+05:30

Jigs,

Contrary to expectations we will see the US economy starting to revive with mortgage rates at 50 years lows and consumer credit rates also very low. With falling commodity prices consumption will also pick up. Due to the 2008 event investors tend to panic on the other side too much these days.
From India's perspective a global slowdown is a necessary condition for lower inflation and improvement of the Fisc. We are all correlated in the short run but in the long run better and more durable growth wins.
Tarun investing during panics always pays.

brilliant analysis as usual sir. i eagerly await u...

2011-08-18T18:48:58.933+05:30

brilliant analysis as usual sir. i eagerly await ur inputs during the month. i am passionate bout investing and after a few years of experience ive realized that generating alpha is beyond my capacity so i am happy with beta albeit with market timing (funadmental orinted). i had been holding onto cash since lasy december and have started accumulating junior nifty etf on every decline. thanks for ur feedback, its good to see sound logic at the time of panic. :)

Sandeep, I have been wrong recently when I expecte...

2011-08-18T18:16:51.452+05:30

Sandeep,
I have been wrong recently when I expected market to move sideway/up. It looks like sensex may retrace further. In 1992-1994 double top and 2000-2004 double top it retraced around fibonacci 61.8% of its total move :-(.
Dow Jones today is heavily oversold so might go up for next few weeks but its recent crash tells US might be heading for recession again after 8-10 months. Falling 30-years US bond yield also supports this view - smart money is moving to safe haven Dollar.
In this scenario IF we do not see QE3 or some sort of QE (with different name) in next 2-3 weeks I am afraid we are heading for difficult times. I could be totally wrong.