Comments on sandip sabharwal: How decoupling will play out

Hi Sandip - Whereas I feel that you have tried to...

2010-07-11T22:34:00.793+05:30

Hi Sandip -
Whereas I feel that you have tried to back up your hypotheses with lots of logic, one thing I have realised is that logic does not work at all times in the markets. You never know what kind of political uncertainity or Euro Zone debt crisis or US credit crisis will strike us and make us all look like fools.

The market might end up even more than what you suggest,the point i am trying to make is that you being a financial expert should advise more caution rather than painting such a rosy picture in front of gullible retail investors. Even the so called expert fund managers are in the same category as retail investors.

To give you an example, I started investing in stock markets in the year 2004, with 50% self managed funds, and 50% investments thru the mutual fund industry.

Today, I stand at 4% gain for self-managed funds just because i never believed the long term bull theory. My mutual fund investments ( one of them in JM also ) stand at 5% loss.

However, my friends/cousins who believed in the rosy picture of Mutual Fund managers/salespersons now rue their decision of sticking with them with some of them having losses over 20%.

Please remember than your articles are being read by ordinary retail investors who are investing their hard earned money. They are uneducated ( in the finnacial world) , hence they are gullible and are like children who want to play with fire. In such cases, experts like u need to caution them.

Well, i am a professional FX, Option and Future tr...

2010-07-11T09:34:47.259+05:30

Well, i am a professional FX, Option and Future trader. Methods we use at wall street are not usually published. 5% folks really make lot of money. Sandip has done a great job with his posts, it is refreshing to read up on his ideas.

While the debate is on, maybe folks want to try this out, my brother made $10,878 (USD) in 12 months, starting with $10,000 capital. Working for the bank i am not allowed to use any such tools, but this has really worked well, i saw his reports. You can download this forex trading automatic system, takes few hours to setup and start making money while you sleep.

http://wallstreetforex.forexprofitsreview.com/

Keep up the debates!

Sandip - Good work in SBI - And Thanks ;) 6 times...

2010-07-03T19:29:43.386+05:30

Sandip - Good work in SBI - And Thanks ;)

6 times growth from 18000 looks yummy - One big chunk of that please... Few arguments against the post(Mungerism)...

1) There is no guarentee that sensex companies earnings need to grow in a similar fashion - It could undergrow the market and may never realize the potential

2) what are your thoughts on things that could go against the growth you mentioned for sensex even if the GDP grows as predicted?

I agree to the analysis. Even if you go back in 20...

2010-07-02T16:05:26.624+05:30

I agree to the analysis. Even if you go back in 2006 same time around today i.e. in June we were at 10000 sensex level today we stand at 17500 which is 15% CAGR return. Remember we also had 60% down trend and a 125% upswing in this time frame. So if you go with same rate for another 10 years we will be at 70500 considering all the volatility to come during the decade.

So i feel 90000 as per your analysis is very much possible.

Sandipji is it possible that there is an Emerging ...

2010-06-30T22:35:58.423+05:30

Sandipji is it possible that there is an Emerging Market Carry Trade developing?
Interest rates in EU & US are at record lows but there is no growth.
India, Brazil and a few EM's have higher interest rates and decent local growth[not export growth].
As a result firms will borrow cheap there and invest here.[e.g. Abbott, Japanese investment in Kotak today]
If done right it could give us good FDI and make the market an outperformer.
Otherwise it could lead to sharp inflation and appreciation in currency exchange rates??Just wanted to check if I am on the right track.

Hi sandeep since you follow astrology what are you...

2010-06-29T15:44:51.352+05:30

Hi sandeep since you follow astrology what are your views on a rare planetary event termed as the Cardinal Climax said to occur somewhere on July 30 - 01st August 2010.

We all perhaps remember this old saying “When US s...

2010-06-29T14:25:34.251+05:30

We all perhaps remember this old saying “When US sneezes, the rest of world catches a cold”. This is because United States is the biggest economy in the whole world. Even the emerging markets (EMs) and prominently BRIC nations’ combined GDP is only 60% that of the US. For a long time the emerging economies (which are mostly export oriented) have depended heavily on the consumption behavior of the US. Hence to analyze whether the decoupling has happened, we need to explore how these EMs have grown in the last decade with respect to the US economy. It would be unfair if we do not analyze financial (investment) and business (trade) decoupling separately.

As per me, Business decoupling is happening at a rattling speed.One of the reasons for this is the tremendous increase in local consumption and investments. These EMs are building more power plants, constructing new highways and skyscrapers and other infrastructure projects, pushing up demand and inter EMs trade opportunities.We, in India, are evident to that.

But what about financial decoupling? Recently we saw how the sub-prime crisis caused immense turbulence in the stock markets right from the US to EMs, which witnessed heavy selling by the US based financial institutions due to the change in risk behavior of investors. The credit monster has hurt both the US and EMs financial markets. Even in the past, when EMs were net foreign borrowers, capital inflows tended to dry up during global downturns as foreign investors shunned risky assets. It appears as if the financial decoupling is still not as strong as the business decoupling. However, these economies now have much better monetary and fiscal policies to protect their economies from the fallout.

Thus, the old saying still remains “When US sneezes, the rest of world catches a cold” relevant but extremely limited in magnitude. I won’t say that decoupling is fully complete; it may take a decade or so to restrict US flu to its premises, without spreading cold elsewhere...

We all perhaps remember this old saying “When US s...

2010-06-29T14:21:23.507+05:30